In addition, the floods killed an estimated 30,000 heads of livestock. Somalia has declared a national emergency in response to the crisis. Kenya and Somalia have had a long simmering territorial dispute. Ongoing desert locust breeding is expected to result in the formation of new swarms in March/April in grasslands and croplands in central, northern, and eastern Kenya, which coincides with the vegetative stage in bimodal cropping areas. A forecast of above-average March to May rainfall is expected to consolidate recent gains in livestock production and lead to near-normal crop production, driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September. 13 This figure was calculated based on children accounting for 48 per cent of the total affected population, based on the last census conducted in Kenya. August 10, 2020. However, some exceptions exist, such as in Isiolo, where livestock holdings are lowest (2 TLUs) and milk production is one liter per household per day on average. Marginal agricultural area outcomes: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely throughout the scenario period. FILE - In this April 5, 2017, file photo, Adel Bol, 20, cradles her 10-month-old daughter Akir Mayen at a food distribution site in Malualkuel, in the Northern Bahr el Ghazal region of South Sudan. [1] FEWS NET is a member of the KFSSG. Vanguard, Dec, 2, 2020. Given that favorable rangeland resources will most likely support good livestock body conditions, most households are expected to limit livestock sales in order to restock their herds, and quarantines may be imposed in response to RVF outbreaks which will further restrict market supply, livestock prices are expected to be sustained at moderately to significantly above average prices throughout the scenario period. ; In Africa, the discovered number of hungry masses is above 255 million. Based on recent funds committed by donor governments and the Kenyan government, aerial and ground control measures are expected to continue to mitigate the impact of desert locust on crop and livestock production, though efforts will likely be limited by insecurity in areas along the Kenya-Somali border. Interannual and emergency food assistance: In 2019, the World Food Programme (WFP) provided over 5,000 metric tons of food assistance and approximately 2.9 million USD in the form of cash transfers, reaching more than 600,000 beneficiaries across the country. According to the convergence of NOAA, ECMWF, and GHACOF forecasts, probabilistic models indicate the March to May bimodal long rains season and February to August unimodal long rains season are most likely to be above average. Markets and trade: The delayed unimodal maize harvest, below-average beans harvest, and tight regional supply are driving high maize and bean prices in most urban and rural key reference markets, which is affecting food access among poor households who lost crops due to the floods, have few saleable animals, and primarily rely on labor income. For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report. As a result, desert locusts are most likely to cause localized cash and food crop losses in southeastern marginal agricultural, western agropastoral, and central highland high potential areas. New York, NY, December 3, 2020 — The International Rescue Committee is extremely concerned by the findings of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) that classified parts of Yemen as experiencing ‘famine like conditions’, with over 47,000 people projected to fall into this category in the next 6 months. Posted: Dec 11, 2020 / 02:29 AM CST / Updated: Dec 11, 2020 / 02:29 AM CST JUBA, South Sudan (AP) — One county in South Sudan is likely in famine and tens of thousands of people in five other counties are on the brink of starvation, according to … In Samburu, recurring communal and resource-based conflicts also periodically limit access to forage and water for livestock and impede market operations in Baragoi. In late February, NDVI data showed vegetation greenness was upwards of 140 percent of normal across most of the country and 105-120 percent of normal in western and northeastern Kenya (Figure 3). The easing of rainfall during the January to February dry season permitted the completion of both the delayed, unimodal long rains harvest in high and medium agricultural areas in western Kenya and the bimodal short rains harvest in marginal agricultural areas in central and southeastern Kenya. However, atypical pasture losses and associated migration is likely in localized areas of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, where insecurity will limit desert locust control operations. In pastoral areas, rangeland resource availability is historically above normal and livestock migration is atypically low. Based on historical trends and given that milk availability will remain high, ‘Acceptable’ levels will likely be sustained throughout the scenario period. The money breaks down as follows: $15 million to Afghanistan, Burkina Faso $6 million, Congo $7 million, northeastern Nigeria $15 million, South Sudan $7 million and Yemen $30 million. NDMA’s interannual Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), funded by DFID, continues to reach about 100,000 households (600,000 beneficiaries) bi-monthly in Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, and Wajir counties, providing an amount equivalent to 40 percent of total household food needs. In February, the cost of water is near normal or up to 50 percent below normal, ranging from KES 2 to 5 for a 20-liter jerrican across most pastoral areas and KES 10 in Turkana. When a person's immune system is weak, it becomes more susceptible to diseases that can be fatal. [1] Tropical Livestock Units are livestock numbers converted to a common unit. Based on FEWS NET’s technical price projections in reference markets in Nairobi, the retail price of a kg of maize is expected to range from 34 to 40 percent above the five-year average throughout the scenario period. Significantly below-average March to May long rains would result in the erosion of the gains brought about by the 2019 October to December short rains and lead to a worst-case scenario from desert locust damage. Well-coordinated surveillance and control of locusts involving proper budgeting and use of the allocated funds set aside for the control of the locusts will result in minimal effects on crops and forage resources. Of greatest concern are pockets of households that are experiencing food gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) within Northwestern, Northern, and Northeastern Pastoral livelihood zone. The wholesale price of a kg of beans is expected to be approximately 55-60 percent above average throughout the scenario period, peaking at about 120 KES. According to FEWS NET’s estimates, total maize production in 2019 – including national long and short rains production – is three percent below average and eight percent below 2018. In 2020, countries in East Africa including Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia are facing a large outbreak of desert locusts contributing to the ongoing food crisis in the region. To date, only 35,000 hectares of infested areas have been sprayed, which represents a small proportion of affected areas. Alarm bells have been ringing for months that COVID-19 could push fragile African countries “closer to the abyss” of famine as jobs are lost, local markets close, and poverty deepens.. Aid agencies routinely list the coronavirus as a major factor in driving humanitarian needs, from the Sahel to Somalia, and don’t shy away from describing its impact as the “perfect storm”. Interannual assistance in the form of cash transfers amounting to KES 2,700 per month by NDMA’s Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), funded by DFID, is expected to reach about 100,000 households (600,000 beneficiaries) in Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, and Wajir counties. However, field assessment information collected by the KFSSG in February shows that poor households’ livestock holdings in terms of tropical livestock units (TLUs)[1] remain below the 10-year average due to losses during recent droughts and floods as well as distressed sales. The strong rainy season that took place between March and May 2020 resulted in massive flooding and landslides that affected 233,000 people and left 116,000 displaced. In Marsabit, for example, retaliatory attacks in response to cattle rustling in parts of North Horr sub-county recently led to temporary closures of markets and primary schools and displaced about 150 households. After the 2018/19 drought, exceptionally above-average rainfall during Kenya’s 2019 short rains season disrupted livelihoods activities and slowed the pace of recovery in many areas, but food security conditions are now gradually improving. Guidance for health workers pdf, 248kb 3. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) would be likely in vulnerable pastoral areas, while more households would experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across the country. Based on current milk production levels of 2-7 liters per day, the typical poor household is likely consuming some goat or cow milk several days per week. Below-average forage and water availability would be expected from June onward, while farming households would suffer crop losses, due to the interaction of poor rainfall with desert locusts even in the presence of aerial and ground control operations. According to FAO’s Desert Locust Watch and confirmed by the KFSSG’s short rains assessmen, there is ongoing hatching of locust nymphs and formation of immature swarms in northern and central counties. In February, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) observed that all livestock species exhibit good body conditions due to good pasture, browse, forage, and water availability. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in Tana Riverine livelihood zone, due to substantial crop losses from the floods and delayed harvests that have left many households with food consumption gaps. Poor households’ own-produced food stocks from the short rains harvest are expected to last through April in Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) counties and through July in areas that had better production. The start of the dry season in January has permitted normal livelihoods activities to resume, which has enabled recovery to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes in most areas of concern. In northeastern Kenya, clashes between Somali and Jubaland defense forces affected Mandera town in late February, suspending livelihood activities and market operations. However, as anticipated in October due to funding constraints, WFP cut rations down to 70 percent of daily kilocalorie needs and this will persist throughout the scenario period. To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. The locust invasion is the worst infestation in Kenya for 70 years and the worst in Somalia and Ethiopia for 25 years. Households are also spending less time trekking to fetch water, leaving more time to engage in livelihood activities to obtain food and income. Above-average livestock prices and milk production are also supplementing food and income from crop production. Acute food insecurity among poor urban households remains high, as COVID-19 restrictions such as the extended curfew and reduced business operating hours continue to impede labor opportunities and access to income. English Situation Report on Kenya about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 30 Oct 2020 by FEWS NET Desert locusts are present in 21 counties of Kenya, but the impact on food security has been localized and limited to date. Although the terms of trade are favorable in pastoral areas, insecurity can periodically disrupt trading activities or impede market access with temporary impacts on household access to food and income sources. The organization estimates that, across the 46 countries it monitors, 113 million people will need humanitarian food aid in 2020. Similarly, the wholesale price of dry beans ranged from 18 to 40 percent above the five-year average in urban reference markets and from near average to 14 percent above average in rural markets. According to the findings of the KFSSG Short Rains Assessment, total maize production is approximately 26 percent above the five-year average, attributed to above-average area planted and high yields in areas not affected by floods. The February to September 2020 most likely food security outcomes are based on the following national-level assumptions: Pastoral area outcomes: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be sustained in most pastoral livelihood zones throughout the scenario period, and many poor households who are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Northwestern, Northern, and Northeastern Pastoral areas are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be "obscene." Good rangeland resource availability and lower return trekking distances have helped to maintain good livestock body conditions, which has in turn supported healthy livestock births and conceptions, boosted milk production, and improved livestock value on the market. Outlook for 2020: South Sudan is currently experiencing a period of relative calm following a nationwide ceasefire in 2018 and a deal to create a yet-to-be formed unity government. February SMART surveys were carried out in Isiolo and Tana River counties, where global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence was measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ),  and NDMA sentinel site data was collected in other counties, where GAM was measured by middle upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements. NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations humanitarian office is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene." Another $20 million has been set aside for “anticipatory action to fight hunger in Ethiopia,” where deadly fighting erupted this month in its rebellious northern Tigray region. Reduced insecurity would facilitate the resumption of normal livelihood activities, trade flows, and market functioning. The below-average rainfall forecasted for late 2020 and early 2021 due to La Niña are expected to drive food insecurity, increase water scarcity and give rise to disease outbreaks. Hamdait, Sudan, Nov 11 Sudan said Thursday it would shelter thousands of Ethiopians fleeing fighting, streaming across the border on foot, by bike and by boat, in a reopened 1980s camp for victims of a historic famine.. More than 11,000 Ethiopians had crossed into Sudan by Wednesday to escape the week-old conflict in the northern region of Tigray as the UN refugee agency warned … In February, goat prices were 10-37 percent above the five-year averages across pastoral reference markets, except in Mandera where the price of a goat is near average. Current food security outcomes, February 2020, Consecutive above-average rainy seasons drive improved food security outcomes, COVID-19 restrictions and forecast below-average Oct-Dec rains to heighten acute food insecurity. Challenge Farm is 10 acre farm, home, church and school. The 2019 floods caused livestock losses in some areas, but livestock production is now largely benefitting from enhanced rangeland conditions as a result of the above-average rains. The crisis has created 2.2 million refugees and displaced 1.5 million inside the country. However, below-average area planted and crop losses from flooding, leaching, and water logging, as well as minimal losses from Fall Army Worm and desert locust infestations, resulted in below-average maize production in Kilifi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), where production ranged from 10 to 18 percent below average on the county level. Months of rain have just ended but weather experts say it was not enough to prevent worsening food and water shortages. The forecast is driven by a likelihood of slightly warmer-than-normal Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and neutral ENSO and IOD conditions through mid-2020. Improved milk consumption and the above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade, coupled with other income sources such as seasonal charcoal and firewood sales and interannual safety nets, is driving a relative improvement in dietary quality and quantity among most poor households. Health is a key component in the response to famine. Crop and livestock production: Food availability has broadly improved in early 2020, though crop losses in unimodal, high and medium potential agricultural areas due to the atypically heavy rains has resulted in tighter-than-normal supply. How a team of scientists studying drought helped build the world’s leading famine prediction model. The number of hungry people in Asia is roughly 515 million. Nonetheless, localized insecurity, cattle rustling, and sporadic intercommunal conflict periodically affects local livelihoods and market access. ; In the Caribbean and the Latin America side, there are roughly discovered 39 million people to be hungry. Civil conflict in South Sudan has killed almost 400,000 people since 2013; 7.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. According to NDMA sentinel site data, more than 80 percent of households in the southeast reported an acceptable food consumption score (FCS). Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario. However, given the likelihood that RVF outbreaks will result in quarantines during the rainy season and suspend livestock sales, poor households in affected areas will be likely to periodically engage in stressed or crisis coping strategies to meet their minimum food needs. Although FEWS NET cross-border monitoring data indicate that maize imports into Kenya during the fourth quarter of 2019 accounted for 12 percent of total regional imports, imports have not filled the national cereal gap. NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations humanitarian office is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene.”. Consequently, livestock are being watered twice as regularly across all pastoral areas except in Wajir and Isiolo, where the frequency remains normal at once every two days. Reductions in trekking distances have resulted in improved access to clean water for cooking, cleaning, and drinking, which has reduced household vulnerability to waterborne disease. This trend is likely to broadly continue through the June to September dry season, given the positive effect of two consecutive above-average rainfall seasons on household income from livestock production. Yussef is supported by his daughter, who grew up as a refugee in Sudan in the wake of the Ethiopia's 1984-5 famine. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. As a result, return trekking distances for livestock from grazing areas to water sources were considerably below average in February, ranging from 2 to 8 kilometers (km) compared to 4-15 km normally. In contrast, beans production ranged from 25 to 38 percent below average on the county level. Many recount similar stories of suffering. Veterinary department interventions have also proven instrumental to limiting livestock disease outbreaks and maintaining livestock health. Return trekking distances from domestic water sources are similarly normal to below normal, ranging from 2 to 5 km compared to 4 to 8 km normally. Based on data collected during the 2019 short rains assessment, the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) estimates that 1.3 million Kenyans are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, a decline of nearly 50 percent compared to the preceding long rains season. In pastoral areas, atypical pasture deterioration in localized areas, particularly in the east, is likely during the June to September dry season. Outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) are likely to occur in Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Kilifi counties in February and from late May. This would be the first time famine has been declared since 2017 in parts of South Sudan,” the statement said. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine … At the national level, national and county governments, NGOs, and international organizations have funded about USD 18.5 million out of the 21.4 million allocated to aerial and ground control operations. The terms of trade were highest in West Pokot, where the sale of a goat could fetch 105 kg of maize, which is nearly 80 percent above the five-year average. In addition, relatively colder temperatures and a shift in seasonal wind patterns are most likely to mitigate the spread of desert locust to western high potential areas, while forecast above-average rainfall is expected to help offset pasture losses during the long rains season. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene.” (AP Photo, File) Marginal agricultural area outcomes: With the exception of Tana Riverine livelihood zone, most marginal agricultural households are currently able to meet their minimum food needs. Cumulative rainfall was 140-350 percent of the 1981-2010 average across the country, leading to large-scale floods that caused landslides, contaminated the water supply, caused crop and livestock losses, and destroyed critical health, irrigation, road, and social infrastructure (Figure 1). Through December 2020, income-earning opportunities in affected sectors are expected to remain constrained, particularly in urban areas. Trends in FCS broadly improved from January to February, reflecting an increase in dietary quality and quantity given ongoing harvesting activities. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, and irrigated areas of Mandera Riverine livelihood zone, where the loss of some agricultural labor income during the floods and relatively lower terms of trade is constraining households’ ability to meet their non-food needs. A return to a world where famines are commonplace would be “obscene in a world where there is more than enough food for everyone,” U.N. humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said. However, the outbreaks are anticipated to be less severe than those of 2019 due to heightened awareness, surveillance systems, and improved control measures both at the national and county level. By Paul Voosen Apr. Crop losses in late 2019 were primarily affected by heavy rainfall, including post-harvest losses equivalent to more than 10 percent of unimodal production in high and medium potential areas. Adequate water availability has similarly benefitted domestic consumption and food utilization. Northwestern Pastoral, Northern Pastoral, Northeastern Pastoral, Southeastern Pastoral, Mandera Riverine, and Tana Riverine livelihood zones were the worst-affected areas, where damage to roads and bridges suspended market functioning and many households endured livestock losses or crop losses. Food availability has improved in early 2020 compared to late 2019, but the delayed unimodal maize harvest, below-average beans harvest, and tight regional supply are still driving high maize and bean prices. The maize import gap is anticipated to be about 0.69 MMT, or 10 percent above the five-year average. In addition, relatively low levels of resource-based conflict have permitted increased freedom of movement to rangeland and markets compared to recent dry seasons, while household time and money spent on accessing water is atypically low. These households have had their assets progressively eroded by drought and floods and have few to no livestock holdings, while they and other households also remain particularly vulnerable to other shocks such as high staple food prices and insecurity. In these areas, household access to food and income sources is increasingly likely to be disrupted by the impact of insecurity on market functioning, while the additional, new hazards presented by desert locust and RVF outbreaks are likely to be more severe given more limited control measures. However, an exception to this trend is Tana Riverine livelihood zone, where severe flooding contaminated water sources and led to increased waterborne disease incidence. Infographic on famine and health jpg, 91… Livestock prices have remained strong since December, attributed to good livestock body conditions and lower livestock supply during a period of restocking. By July, the near-average long rains harvest, which comprises only about 30-40 percent of the total annual harvest in these areas, is expected to provide an additional food source. However, NDMA sentinel site data and field assessment data collected by the KFSSG in February suggest that there are some poor households who are still experiencing food gaps or engaged in crisis livelihoods coping strategies in most pastoral livelihood zones. Similarly, the use of consumption-based coping strategies as measured by rCSI broadly declined from October 2019 through February 2020, showing steady improvement. As a result, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes exist in Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka). 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