and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account. Number of times cited according to CrossRef: A Novel Fuzzy Random Forest Model for Meteorological Drought Classification and Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. • Forest under protected areas show little risk of being converted in the near future. The total special vegetation area had the highest increasing trend with the rate of 8,000 ha/year. “Before the revolution, in 1979, the total agricultural crop was 26 million tons. 22 (MNA) – Deputy Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said that country’s export of agricultural products in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year registered a 30 percent hike. Trends of SPI and (a) rain‐fed areas, (b) rain‐fed productions, (c) irrigated areas, (d) irrigated productions. Clearly, the changes in irrigated agricultural area and production in Iran did not follow the patterns of natural water availability changes across time and space. Iran has also signed several agreements over the past year with several countries including Denmark, Ghana, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands and Vietnam, to expand agricultural trade and cooperation. Although Iran's total cultivated area has not significantly changed (Figure 5a), total agricultural production in Iran has increased during the 1981–2013 period (Figure 5b). This page has economic forecasts for Iran including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iran economy. While this unsustainable agricultural expansion can reduce the food security concerns of Iran in the short run, the long‐term impacts of this practice on surface and ground water resources that have led the country into the state of water bankruptcy are dramatic and can be irreversible. Rain‐fed cereal area/production had almost a similar trend to the SPI index during the investigation period (Figures 8a and 8b), i.e., the Pearson correlation coefficient had its highest values for the relationship between SPI and rain‐fed cereal area and production (0.49 and 0.43, respectively) (Table 5). This reflects increased production efficiency due to using more drought tolerant verities of crop seeds, consuming fertilizers, and improved agricultural practices. Data for number of dams built, added reservoir storage capacity, average groundwater level, and number of wells are available in Figure 9. Due to a severe drought at the end of the past millennium, Iran rose to the position of a fifth‐largest wheat importer in the world in 2001 (Alizadeh & Keshavarz, 2005). Projections of urban and rural consumption in Iran 6l Figure 2 provides the graphical illustration of the analysis process in this study. Iran’s minister of agriculture, Mahmoud Hojjati, continues to boast about Iran’s agriculture production. The agricultural data cover a variety of products, namely, cereal (e.g., wheat, rice, and barley), legume, industrial crops (e.g., oilseeds, sugar beets, and cotton), special vegetation (e.g., medicinal plants, potato, onion, and tomato), cucurbits, and forage. Irrigated and rain‐fed agriculture production, respectively, increased by 137% and 59% during the study period. Agriculture accounts for ten per cent of GDP, employing about 30 per cent of the population. With an average rainfall of 240mm per year, Iran is a dryland area. The sector satisfies 90% of the food demand, provides about 20% of employment, and contributes to about 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) (Mesgaran et al., 2016). This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. "If Iran retaliated in Iraq, and halted a lot of Iraqi oil exports, then prices could go to $100," Mills said. Rome, Italy The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the • We compare the results with country-specific prediction of forest area changes. However, only a tenth is actually irrigated and used. Iraqi farmers normally irrigate their crops by flooding their fields; however, this is a short-term solution which causes even more problems in the future, including erosion. Iran is the world's largest producer of saffron. Composition and Structure, Atmospheric Although the southern, eastern, and central parts of Iran do not generally benefit from high surface water availability, the irrigated farming production in some of these areas was comparable with provinces that have better surface water availability and land suitability. The Saudi Arabia Agriculture Market was valued at USD 9507 million in 2018 and is forecasted to reach a value of USD 12160.3 in 2024 witnesiing a CAGR of 4.53% over the forecast period 2019-2024. However agricultural growth in the 1990s and 2000s slowed down, averaging about 3.5% per annum, and cereal yields have increased by only 1.4% per annum in the 2000s. Rome, Italy The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Physics, Astrophysics and Astronomy, Perspectives of Earth and Space Scientists, orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7463-8563, orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0886-6699, orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2769-106X, orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0378-3170, I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of Use, Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran, Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: Call for action, Survey and determination of Anzali wetland trophic state through geographic information systems (GIS), Climate‐informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts, Water conservation, reuse, and recycling: Proceedings of an Iranian‐American workshop, The dilemma of cheap food and self‐sufficiency: The case of wheat in Iran, Metal contamination assessment in water column and surface sediments of a warm monomictic man‐made lake: Sabalan Dam Reservoir, Iran, Quantifying anthropogenic stress on groundwater resources, Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran, Input and output technical efficiencies of wheat production in Kerman, Iran, Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): Climate change scenario analysis, Carbonate phases in calcareous soils of the western United States, A kriging approach to the analysis of climate model experiments, Soil degradation and agricultural sustainability: An overview from Iran, Agricultural mechanization, a key to food security in developing countries: Strategy formulating for Iran, Nitrate contamination in irrigation groundwater, Isfahan, Iran, Rainfed wheat yields under climate change in northeastern Iran, Evaluating the main sources of groundwater pollution in the southern Tehran aquifer using principal component factor analysis, Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh‐Rud River Basin, Water transfer as a solution to water shortage: A fix that can backfire, Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran, Ground surface response to continuous compaction of aquifer system in Tehran, Iran: Results from a long‐term multi‐sensor InSAR analysis, Mapping temperature using kriging with external drift: Theory and an example from Scotland, Evaluation of groundwater quantity and quality in the Kashan Basin, Central Iran, The conservation of biodiversity in Iran: Threats, challenges and hopes, Climate change impact on precipitation and cardinal temperatures in different climatic zones in Iran: Analyzing the probable effects on cereal water‐use efficiency, Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran, Climatic or regionally induced by humans? This is consistent with higher precipitation (Figure 1a) and better land suitability for rain‐fed agriculture in these provinces (Mesgaran et al., 2017). In general, Table 5 suggests that Iran's agriculture has expanded even in dry years due to the desire for agricultural production growth and/or lack of ability to limit water withdrawal by farmers during dry years. Total production under conventional farming dramatically decreased during these droughts, especially for cereal production (Figure 5c). So the total cultivated area of the country during the study period has remained almost unchanged. The MK and SSE results indicate that total production for all crops, total areas for forage, special vegetation, and industrial production had significant increasing trends; while total agriculture areas for cucurbits, legume, and cereal did not have notable trends during the study period. THE AGRICULTURAL « REVOLUTION » : ITS EFFECT ON HUMAN DIET IN PREHISTORIC IRAN AND ISRAEL MJ. Iran has also signed several agreements over the past year with several countries including Denmark, Ghana, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands and Vietnam, to expand agricultural trade and cooperation. SPI data are available in Figures 3 and 8. Working off-campus? Like the killing of Qassem Soleimani, it has a major political impact and makes it even harder for the United States to negotiate with Iran. The Khuzestan province with a relatively high surface water availability had the highest irrigated farming area (14.7%). Despite decreasing water availability during this period, irrigated agricultural production and area continuously increased. This has major implications for Iran's agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. - The reason that people accepted the responsibility of agriculture is still a subject of controversy. They live in a total area of 1,648,195 sq km. The anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran's water availability. Most of Iran's agricultural land area was used for cereal production. 22 (MNA) – Deputy Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said that country’s export of agricultural products in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year registered a 30 percent hike. Geophysics, Geomagnetism Geophysics, Marine Journal of Advances Last spring, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and to re-impose U.S. sanctions on Iran that had been suspended under the JCPOA agreement. Some northern and western areas support rain-fed agriculture, while other areas require irrigation for successful crop production. Chemical fertilizer consumption in agricultural lands across Iran (1999–2009). Rapid urbanization in Iran involved turning some existing farmlands into urban and industrial lands. This study addresses this knowledge gap and complements the previous national level studies of Iran's agriculture by investigating the long‐term impacts of variability of natural water availability on this sector. With an average rainfall of 240mm per year, Iran is a dryland area. However, the agricultural sector is vulnerable to water availability changes, meteorological variability, extreme climate events such as droughts, and climate change. Water management in Iran: What is causing the looming crisis? 2008. After an initial 90-day wind down period, the first round of sanctions went into effect. The agrarian sector in Iraq witnessed a number of drastic measures during the last 40 years. This has been mainly attributed to the country's unsustainable economic development plans, inefficient agriculture, and water overconsumption (Madani, 2014; Madani Larijani, 2005). • Global forest area will decrease by 2030 but the rate of loss will slow down. The Fresh Fruit & Vegetables (FFV) production is near to 30 million tons per year. The productivity of this sector has increased through improved farming practices while the total rain‐fed farming area across the country has decreased. Urgent policy reforms are needed to adapt the agriculture sector to natural water availability, ecologic carrying capacity, and the expected impacts of climate change in different parts of the country. They live in a total area of 1,648,195 sq km. The study data consisted of the average monthly precipitation at the selected synoptic stations, annual rain‐fed and irrigated agricultural areas, and annual rain‐fed and irrigated agricultural production. Agriculture Sector in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The highest increase in the irrigated area during 2004–2013 was about 135% and occurred in South Khorasan, one of Iran's driest provinces (Figure 1a). Thus, today, while the government is keen on making the country self-sufficient in agricultural produce, Iran still needs to import most of its goods in order to feed the population. This can be attributed to the increase in water availability for agriculture due to higher than average precipitation (Madani et al., 2016) as well as the construction of a number of large dams during this period (Alizadeh & Keshavarz, 2005) that increased surface water availability for agriculture. Bahrain has a negligible production of cereals and other agriculture products. The Saudi Arabia Agriculture Market was valued at USD 9507 million in 2018 and is forecasted to reach a value of USD 12160.3 in 2024 witnesiing a CAGR of 4.53% over the forecast period 2019-2024. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. The Economy of Iran is a mixed and transition economy with a large public sector. The Islamic Republic of Iran has a total population of approximately 80 million. approximately 7 4 % of the population live in urban areas with a growth annual rate of 1.97%. GDP From Agriculture in Iran decreased to 16224.32 IRR Billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 from 118224.84 IRR Billion in the third quarter of 2019. source: Central Bank of Iran 3Y 10Y 25Y Kriging method was used considering its better performance than other relevant interpolation approaches such as inverse distance weighting method (Drignei, 2009; Hudson & Wackernagel, 1994; Vajda & Venäläinen, 2003). However, the May 2018 decision by the United States to re-impose economic sanctions … In 1983, maximum rain‐fed cucurbits area coincided with the maximum SPI (Figure 8a). To compare some variables with different units and ranges of variability (e.g., SPI, agricultural production, and agricultural area), feature scaling based on the normalized method was used using the Student's t test (Hogg & Craig, 1995). Increased food production was not sufficient to keep up with the increasing food demand as the result of rapid population growth, forcing Iran to continue importing portions of its strategic foods. The analysis procedure and components. "The nuclear deal, at the end of the day, is not just about nukes — it's about the future of Iran politically; it's about the future of the revolution," Wright says. Lisez les dernières informations dans l'édition française du New Agriculturist, I appreciate it and author of this paper. The next study will more closely look into the distribution of crops patterns and discuss the future of Iran’s agriculture in the contexts of freshwater consumption and the monetary value of products. The authors declare no conflict of interests. Iran's agricultural production has increased in the last decades as a result of land and water resources development. Although the southern, eastern, and central parts of Iran do not generally benefit from high surface water availability, the area of irrigated lands in some of these regions are comparable with provinces that have better surface water availability and land suitability. The FAO has developed 15 reports and guidelines it believes are crucial in ensuring sustainable agriculture in Iran. (1896-1977), Chinese Journal of Geophysics (2000-2018), International Nevertheless, for proper interpretation of this observation, one must also note the changes in land use patterns and crop types across the country. Location of 85 selected synoptic stations used in this study. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran's agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period. Related to Geologic Time, Mineralogy Benefiting from 123,580 square kilometers of land suitable for agriculture, the agricultural sector is one of the major contributors to Iran's economy. Forest area change to 2030 is projected using an agriculture/wood demand driven model. • Credits to agricultural sector by banks (1970-75) 47 "billion rials Table 12. Some northern and western areas support rain-fed agriculture, while other areas require irrigation for successful crop production. The country has varying climates from north to south and east to west. According to a former agriculture minister, deserts in Iran are spreading, South Alborz and East Zagros will be uninhabitable and people will have to migrate. The highest positive correlation between SPI and cereal rain‐fed area/production showed that rain‐fed cereal has the highest sensitivity to meteorological variability among all types of crops. Precipitation of over 500 mm is only occurring over 8% of Iran's area (Figure 1a). The southern, eastern, and central parts of Iran do not generally benefit from high surface water availability. At the same time, both the assassination and Iran’s nuclear program need to be kept in a broader strategic context. The Khuzestan and Mazandaran provinces had the highest irrigated (about 18.4%) and rain‐fed (29.5%) production in Iran, respectively, from 2004 to 2013 (Figure 6). Iran's agricultural sector contributed 12 percent of the GDP in 2005 and employed 30% (2001) of the labour force (CIA). While increased fertilizer use and the accompanied consumption of nutritional elements in the agricultural sector improves agricultural production, they have long‐term implications for safe water availability in the long run. Negative values were obtained for rain‐fed area of most crops in the last 4 years of the study period although the SPI values were positive in three of these years (Figure 8a). The dramatic pressure on surface and groundwater resources as well as recent droughts have resulted in drying rivers, lakes, wetlands, qanats and springs, declining groundwater level and well discharges, soil erosion, desertification and frequent dust storms, biodiversity losses, and increased pressure on rural livelihood (AghaKouchak et al., 2015; Ashraf et al., 2017; Jamshidzadeh & Mirbagheri, 2011; Jowkar et al., 2016; Madani, 2014; Mirchi & Madani, 2015, Mirnezami et al., 2018; Mirzaei et al., 2019; Nodefarahani et al., 2020; OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), 2000; OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2001). Physics, Solar In ancient times, Persians introduced the Kareez system - a series of wells and water channels - to irrigate crops, but although still widespread, many are poorly maintained and result in significant losses through evaporation and leakage. Significant amounts of untreated wastewater, mainly originating from agricultural lands, are discharged into surface and ground water resources. Geology and Geophysics, Physical and Paleomagnetism, History of The country also lays claim to the invention of the windmill. A general increasing trend for the irrigated area was observed almost in all provinces. It is estimated that 80 per cent of Iran's wheat crops are susceptible to the disease, and the government has pledged more research to develop resistant varieties. Agriculture has suffered from a lack of both public and private investment, partly due to protracted land disputes following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which sought national self-sufficiency in food production. Physics, Comets and Iran breached the 3.67% cap in July 2019 and the enrichment level has remained steady at up to 4.5% since then. 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